Combining Behavioral and Structural Predictors of Violent Civil Conflict: Getting Scholars and Policymakers to Talk to Each Other. pdf version.
Abstract: This paper uses conflict narratives from the International Crisis Group's CrisisWatch publications to cross-validate structural analyses of civil conflict and confirm the mechanisms that lead to outbreaks of violence in conflict-prone countries. I correct for selection bias in the narrative data with an underlying model of conflict, and I find that several indicators thought to be causally related to civil conflict do indeed continue to have an effect after selection. The findings strongly support a state-capability model of civil conflict with one caveat. Structural models do not do well when predicting low-intensity, separatist conflicts within developed democracies. The analyses highlight the importance of combining structural, large-N analyses of structure with qualitative assessments of government, citizen, and international community behavior.
Abstract: This paper uses conflict narratives from the International Crisis Group's CrisisWatch publications to cross-validate structural analyses of civil conflict and confirm the mechanisms that lead to outbreaks of violence in conflict-prone countries. I correct for selection bias in the narrative data with an underlying model of conflict, and I find that several indicators thought to be causally related to civil conflict do indeed continue to have an effect after selection. The findings strongly support a state-capability model of civil conflict with one caveat. Structural models do not do well when predicting low-intensity, separatist conflicts within developed democracies. The analyses highlight the importance of combining structural, large-N analyses of structure with qualitative assessments of government, citizen, and international community behavior.