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Douglas M. Gibler
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Combining Behavioral and Structural Predictors of Violent Civil Conflict: Getting Scholars and Policymakers to Talk to Each Other. pdf version.

Abstract: This paper uses conflict narratives from the International Crisis Group's CrisisWatch publications to cross-validate structural analyses of civil conflict and confirm the mechanisms that lead to outbreaks of violence in conflict-prone countries.  I correct for selection bias in the narrative data with an underlying model of conflict, and I find that several indicators thought to be causally related to civil conflict do indeed continue to have an effect after selection.  The findings strongly support a state-capability model of civil conflict with one caveat.  Structural models do not do well when predicting low-intensity, separatist conflicts within developed democracies.  The analyses highlight the importance of combining structural, large-N analyses of structure with qualitative assessments of government, citizen, and international community behavior.
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  • About
  • Territorial Peace
  • Research
  • MID Data
  • Alliance Data
  • Replication
  • Belgium Program
  • 2020 ISSR Intl Conflict Workshop Schedule